A combination vaccine that would provide protection against flu and Covid-19 will likely be available by the end of 2023, the chief executive of Moderna said during a global discussion on pandemic future. Experts say the Covid-19 pandemic is likely to move towards endemic status in 2022, with Covid-19 being included in the annual roster of common coronaviruses like the flu and the common cold.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum, Stephane Banchel, chief executive of Moderna, said research and development of the dual vaccine was already in progress against influenza and Covid-19. “We want to make sure there is one booster for corona and flu so there is more compliance,” he said. “The best case scenario is by the fall of 2023 to have a combined vaccine for flu and Covid.”

“The current vaccines have not yet been adapted to the current strains of the virus.” He continued, “We saw a drop in protection after two doses, but strong protection after a third dose which was very encouraging. Now we are working on a vaccine for Omicron which we hope to have data on very soon.”

“The enemy is not another company or group, but the virus.”

A Moderna booster designed to fight the Omicron variant is likely to enter human trials within weeks, with another booster likely to be administered in the fourth quarter of the year.

Herd immunity against coronavirus as a result of global vaccinations and infection rates could be abstract due to the constant viral evolution. While Omicron appears to be more transmissible and less lethal than former variants as scientifically indicated, danger remains.

Dr Anthony Fauci, the leading White House health adviser, is hopeful for further scientific breakthroughs in RNA vaccines to channel natural immunity. “That would provide an extra layer of defence without the need to add adjuvants over time as the virus mutates,” he said.

“We must be careful we do not get into the whack-a-mole approach every time there is a new variant,” he said. “One of the things we are pushing for is how to find out the mechanisms that induce a response to a commonality of all the different variants. That is an important scientific goal.”

Herd immunity is achieved when a huge population of people garner more immunity, who have either been fully vaccinated or have recovered from an infection, but that protection wanes away rather quickly. Furthermore, the virus has the capability of mutating that can elude the immune response.

“That is what we have seen with Omicron,” Dr Fauci said. “That is a different scenario to what we have seen with measles. That virus does not change and a vaccine or infection gives lifelong immunity. That is the ideal herd immunity, but this is very complicated and it could be elusive [with Covid].”

Research has been on a fast track due to global pandemic and it has better prepared the world for further outbreaks, experts have said. But a unified approach and a centralised vaccination development programme can only offer universal protection from viruses in the future.

World Health Organisation supported Covax facility is aimed to ensure access to vaccine in low and middle-income countries. Target was set of distributing two billion doses by 2021 end. But as wealthy nations stockpiled vaccines for booster campaigns, Covax could deliver only a billion doses to 151 countries. Of the 194 nations affiliated with the WHO, 36 were able to vaccinate less than 10 per cent of populations as of January 13, and 88 countries less than 40 per cent.

Despite that shortfall, Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness and Innovations (CEPI), told the forum that a lot was achieved in 2021. “Where supply was the major challenge in 2021, the last mile will be the major challenge of 2022, making vaccines available to anyone who wants it,” he said.

“A lot of focus has been placed on the equity gap, but we need to look at what has been accomplished. We will get to a point this year where either people will have been vaccinated or infected with the virus.”

“The long-term view is that Covid is going to behave more like flu and evolve. It has the potential to become pandemic at any time. It will retain that capability and that should be concerning to all of us.”