A new study is indicating that a small proportion of elderly people in Gulf nations may be helping in containing the COVID-19 fatality numbers in the region. The study has analyzed why GCC nations reported lower COVID-19 death rates compared to European countries early in the pandemic outbreak.

Published last month in the Qatar Medical Journal, the study has been titled “Covid-19-associated mortality across the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council and how it compares to Europe: A comparative study.” It has been conducted by researchers based in the US and Jordan using World Health Organization (WHO) data to calculate the case fatality rates (CFR means the proportion of deaths among people with a confirmed case) across all GCC countries. The data was then compared to case fatality rates of 33 European member states.

In the study, researchers have pointed out that the mortality rate due to COVID-19 was witness 5-10 times higher in Europe compared to GCC nations.

"Even outside Europe, only a few countries reported such low CFR (such as the GCC nations),” they added.

Since the onset of the pandemic outbreak in the UAE, there have been 739,190 cases of COVID-19, out of whom 2,129 deaths have been reported (as of October 22). On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has reported a total of 548,205 cases and 8,776 deaths, while Bahrain saw 276,461 COVID-19 cases and 1,393 deaths.

The researchers analyzed the COVID-19 data of GCC nations upto May 12, 2020, following which they found that UAE’s CFR was 1.06 percent, Kuwait's was 0.69 percent, Saudi Arabia's was 0.62 percent, Oman's CFR was 0.45 percent, Bahrain reported 0.15 percent and in Qatar, it was 0.06 percent.

Researchers, based at the University of Jordan and Saint Mary’s Medical Group in Indiana in the United States, underlined 10 European countries reported CFRs above 10 percent during the same period of time, with the majority witnessing over 3 percent CFR. Furthermore, only two European nations reported CFR similar to the GCC - Belarus and Iceland with each having CFR of 0.56 percent.

Researcher also highlighted the difference in age groups between the Gulf region and European countries may be one of the most important factors, noting that Gulf region has mainly younger population and smaller elderly demographic.

It was studied early in the pandemic that increased age poses higher risk of serious illness or death after contracting COVID-19.

Last year, a study was conducted to analyze the infection fatality rates (IFR means the proportion of deaths among all people infected) in England. It found that IFR of 0.5 percent in people aged 45 to 64, 3.1 percent in people aged 65 to 74, and 11.6 percent in people aged 75 and over.

Noting that elderly patients are more prone to risk of dying from COVID-19 complications, it coupled with noticeable differences between the elderly population of Gulf states and Europe helped in deriving the CFR pattern of the study.

According to 2016 figures from Europe, 19.2 percent of the bloc's population is over 65 years. On the other hand, UAE has just 1.16 percent of the population over 65 years and Saudi Arabia has about 3 percent (according to 2019 World Bank figures).

Besides age deciding difference in the CFR pattern between Europe and the GCC, researchers also underlined that the number of COVID-19 tests conducted and variations in COVID-19 death reporting may also have influenced the results.

During the early weeks of the pandemic onset, European countries were exposed to large number of infections with governments and healthcare systems less prepared to handle the transmission. It may have resulted in these nations reporting higher CFRs. However, researchers confirmed that differences in the quality of healthcare were “not the main factor" for lower CFR across the GCC region.

Dr Davinder Pal Singh, a cardiologist at NMC Royal Hospital in Dubai, expressed his agreement with the findings of the study that low proportion of elderly members in GCC was a prominent factor in analyzing the differences in death rates.

“In Gulf countries, the population is middle-aged. The elderly population and the chronically disabled with illness is very low. In Europe, the elderly population is much higher. They’re more likely to be getting chronic illnesses," he said.

Speaking about the current COVID-19 situation in the UAE, Dr Singh pointed out that UAE’s population is highly vaccinated at present with significant improvements in the healthcare system. Furthermore, the UAE is reported fewer than 20 deaths per week compared with over 100 deaths per week in February.

“The pandemic part is over. We don’t face so many patients, so much severity. It’s much better," Dr Singh added.