Department of Health – Abu Dhabi (DoH) has announced the development and deployment of a leading epidemiological modelling tool to be utilised during the Expo 2020 Dubai. The announcement came during a ceremony at Expo 2020 in the presence of several strategic partners of the Department including the Abu Dhabi Public Health Centre (ADPHC) and Khalifa University of Science and Technology (KU).

The ceremony saw signing of an agreement for the tool by Jamal Mohammed Al Kaabi, Under-Secretary of DoH, Matar Saeed Al Nuaimi, Director-General of ADPHC, Najeeb Al-Ali, Executive Director of Expo 2020 Dubai and Dr. Arif Sultan Al Hammadi, Executive Vice President at the Khalifa University of Science Technology. The signing ceremony was witnessed by Reem Al Hashemy, UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation and Director-General of Expo 2020 Dubai as well as Abdullah bin Mohamed Al Hamed, Chairman of the Department of Health – Abu Dhabi (DoH).

Developed by researchers from Khalifa University in collaboration with DoH and ADPHC, the epidemiological modelling tool has been dubbed the "Expo 2020 model" with the aim of enhancing the safety of visitors at the expo.

Reportedly, the tool works by assessing simulation scenarios that collaborate the expected number of visitors with prevailing information about the dynamics of the COVID-19 disease. The tool serves as a dedicated working model that is based on relevant epidemiological data and information collected over the past 20 months by multiple teams in Abu Dhabi along with expertise from local and global professionals.

The tool will help healthcare authorities in predicting the projected impact of the disease on the medical sector, assessing required capacity in time and developing the best solutions for residents and visitors in case of a surge in infections.

Notably, the analytical powerhouse that is used to build this sophisticated tool has already proved its success by contributing to monitoring and decision-making in the emirate. It has facilitated leading position of Abu Dhabi in its response to COVID-19.

Addressing the event, Al Hashemy underlined that the health and safety of all visitors, participants, and staff at the Expo is the number one priority for all authorities.

"The pandemic has put this commitment even more sharply into focus, and we have worked tirelessly across the organisation to ensure we follow the latest guidance and collaborate closely with local and international authorities, including the UAE’s world-class health authorities," he added.

Furthermore, Al Hamed expressed happiness towards the Department's exceptional partnership with Expo 2020 and Khalifa University. He underlined that the support and guidance provided by the UAE's wise leadership have helped Abu Dhabi in developing the distinguished model to boost response against COVID-19 and post-pandemic recovery. He lauded the development of the epidemiological modelling tool as an incredible milestone that will contribute to delivering a safer and more successful Expo 2020 event.

"This collaboration highlights the importance of consolidating efforts and leveraging UAE’s robust infrastructure to develop a solution that has the potential to improve disease management at many other large-scale events globally," Al Hamed added.

Al Nuaimi affirmed that a global model has been designed to maintain the health and safety of the community. Al Nuaimi stated that this collaboration complements the ongoing nation efforts to achieve the Centre's vision towards a healthy and safe society during events like Expo 2020.

"We are proud to collaborate with key stakeholders and contribute to the success of Expo 2020 and provide an innovative epidemiological modelling tool for this prestigious event, based on the two previous models developed by our local researchers, that highlights Khalifa University’s local research initiatives that make a global contribution," Dr. Al Hammadi underscored.

It is the robust advanced digital infrastructure of Abu Dhabi that facilitated the development and deployment of the tool at Expo 2020 Dubai. The model works in line with Expo 2020’s theme of "Connecting minds, creating the future". Furthermore, it will pave the way for better management of health and safety of the public at future large-scale events both locally and internationally.

The tool has been developed collaboratively by Dr. Jorge Rodriguez, Associate Professor at Department of Chemical Engineering, Dr. Mauricio Patton, postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Chemical Engineering and Dr. Juan Acuna, Professor and Head of the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health at Khalifa University. The tool was designed on the basis of two previous iterations with the first developed in April 2020 and second version created in October 2020 to boost the launch of the UAE's vaccination campaign.

The Expo 2020 model consists of a number of key inputs, including the number of visitors from various countries, and age-disaggregated epidemiological parameters such as rates of transmission and risk of infection.

The results can be seen on an interactive dashboard that allows the end-user to modify critical parameters and monitor the real-time impact of the pandemic. In addition, it provides an accurate comparison between different scenarios to help decision-makers take right actions as well as a secondary focus on predictive numbers.

WAM